By Oluwakemi Kindness
Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook to Positive from Stable, citing stronger foreign reserves, moderating inflation and sustained economic reforms.
The agency retained Nigeria’s long-term credit rating at ‘B’, saying further improvements will depend on continued progress.
The Federal Ministry of Finance announced the decision in a statement signed by Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele on Saturday.
According to the ministry, Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose to $54.9 billion on September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
Fitch attributed the increase to investment inflows, export earnings, remittances and improved foreign exchange transactions.
Fitch projected a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026, saying stronger reserves have improved Nigeria’s ability to withstand external shocks.
The agency forecasts average inflation of 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level. However, slower inflation does not necessarily mean lower prices for food, transport and other essentials.
Fitch also expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4 per cent in 2025, driven largely by non-oil activities.
The agency noted that crude oil production has met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026. It also said increased domestic refining was reducing refined petroleum imports and foreign exchange demand.
Despite the improved outlook, Fitch identified low government revenue and high interest costs as continuing challenges. It expects tax reforms to improve non-oil revenue mobilisation.
The agency projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the ‘B’ rating category median of 56 per cent.
Fitch also recognised Nigeria’s bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks have capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.
The ministry said S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August. FTSE Russell also returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status, effective September 21, 2026.
The government attributed the improved assessments to reforms under President Bola Tinubu, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate unification and tax reforms.
Fitch said sustained reforms, lower inflation, stronger reserves and higher non-oil revenue could support further positive rating action, while Nigerians will look for tangible gains in jobs, incomes and living costs.
