By Julian Osamoto
Kimpact Development Initiative, KDI, has warned, that fear of electoral violence could suppress voter participation in parts of Osun State ahead of Saturday’s governorship election.
The Executive Director of KDI Bukola Idowu, gave the warning in Abuja, during the presentation of the organisation’s 2026 Election Security Risk Assessment, ESRA.
He explained that fear was already discouraging some residents from attending campaign rallies, moving freely, declaring political affiliations and volunteering as polling officials.
According to him, the assessment recorded 73 election-related violent incidents, with 78 per cent occurring between May and July as political activities intensified.
It identifies Osogbo, Irewole, Ede North and South, Ilesa East and West, Olorunda, Ayedaade and Ife North as areas requiring enhanced preventive engagement.
KDI said the assessment was based on responses from 3,275 citizens across all 30 local government areas, alongside key-informant interviews, incident monitoring, media monitoring and stakeholders validation.
It highlights the major threat as the convergence of political, criminal, operational, social and information pressures in strategic locations rather than widespread violence across the state.
The report warns that psychological insecurity could reduce turnout, weaken election observation and undermine public confidence in the electoral process.
“Residents have already restricted their movements, avoided political activities and become reluctant to take part in election-related duties”.
Presenting the findings, KDI’s Head of Research and Strategy Oluwafemi Adebayo, expressed optimism that the assessment would help stakeholders identify emerging risks and tailor preventive measures to the conditions in different locations.
Pannel session
In a pannel session, a security expert Professor Ernest Ereke, urged security agencies to deploy personnel according to the specific risks in each area rather than adopt a uniform approach across Osun.
Professor Ereke, identified political competition, institutional weaknesses, criminality and cultism among the pressures driving insecurity in Osogbo, while mining-related criminality presents a different risk in Iwo.
He also advised the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, to address election logistics, personnel deployment and the reliability of electoral technology.
The security expert however, warned that weaknesses in these areas could frustrate voters, political supporters and increase the risk of aggression on election day.
Contributing former Assistant Inspector-General of Police, AIG Abutu Yaro, called for greater scrutiny of political actors who enable, sponsor from electoral violence.
He said “tackling individual incidents without addressing their underlying causes could allow electoral violence and weaknesses in election management to persist”.
Nigeria Civil Society
Also the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room representative Agianpe Onyema, identified declining institutional trust, challenges with the distribution and collection of Permanent Voter Cards, PVCs, limited voter education as well as concerns about electoral technology as threats to public confidence.
Onyema called for stronger collaboration among civil society organisations, improved electoral logistics and greater accountability for electoral offences, saying visible action against offenders would help rebuild trust in the electoral processes
Recommendations
The stakeholders recommended intelligence-led security operations, targeted preventive deployment and rapid-response mechanisms ahead of the election.
They also advised that political parties should discourage the recruitment of violent groups as this will strengthen early-warn
