By Sofiat Adenekan-Abdul
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 33.1 per cent by 2027, reflecting growing fiscal pressures and increased borrowing.
The forecast, contained in the Fund’s latest Fiscal Monitor Report releases in Washington DC during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, shows a gradual increase from 32.3 per cent expected in 2026, although slightly below the 35.3 per cent recorded in 2025.
The projection comes amid a request by president Bola Tinubu for National Assembly approval of $6 billion in external loans, highlighting Nigeria’s continued reliance on borrowing to finance its budget.
Recent data from the Debt Management Office DMO, shows the country’s total public debt rose to N159.27 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of nearly N6 trillion from the previous quarter.
Globally, the IMF said government debt reached about 94 per cent of GDP in 2025 and could climb to 100 per cent by 2029, levels last seen after World War II, underscoring rising fiscal risks worldwide.
The Fund warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could worsen fiscal conditions through higher food and energy prices, tighter financial conditions and increased defence spending.
It also highlights additional risks, including a potential correction in artificial intelligence-related asset markets, which could further elevate global debt vulnerabilities.
Director of Fiscal Affairs at the IMF, Rodrigo Valdés, cautioned that delayed fiscal reforms could reduce governments’ ability to respond to future crises.
He urged countries, especially low-income economies, to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation and adopt credible medium-term fiscal frameworks to safeguard economic stability.
The IMF also warned against broad-based energy subsidies, noting that they are costly, inefficient and difficult to reverse, particularly in economies already burdened by rising debt.
